Likely mild winter this year in parts of U.S.

MEDFORD, Ore. —  Experts say if we do have a mild winter, it won’t be good for the long-term.

“We certainly don’t need any more days where the fuels in the forests are ready to burn…,” said Forest Division Chief Chris Chambers.

The 2018 fire season may be almost over, but winter is fast-approaching.

That’s why a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is causing concern.

“What we really need is a cold, wet winter…,” said NBC5 Meteorologist Matt Jordan.

According to the report, Northern and Western states like Oregon will most likely have above average temperatures this winter. Experts say a likely El Niño will also cause wetter conditions in the Southern part of the U.S. and warmer, drier conditions in the North.

“El Niño, in this particular case, though it is weak to moderate, it’s looking like it’s going to keep us mostly on the dry side of things…,” said Jordan.

According to the report, there’s a 70-75 percent of El Niño happening in late fall to early winter. That could have troubling implications for those already looking ahead to the 2019 fire season.

“If we start out the year with a low snow pack or we didn’t get as much precipitation over the weekend that we had hoped for… fire season would tend to start that much earlier…,” said Division Chief Chambers.

The lack of moisture could also pose a threat to fires at higher elevations.

“It really extends the upper elevation fire season and really adds that much more risk of a threatening wildfire to the city’s watershed, and to the community itself,” Division Chief Chambers said.

And even though it’s still fall, and weather is often unpredictable… experts say the more snow the better.

“A wet winter, even if it’s warm, would be a lot better than a dry winter…,” said Division Chief Chambers.

Experts say the melting snow during the spring and summer months is what really keeps us out of the dry conditions. That’s why we need a consistent amount of water going through our streams, lakes, and rivers…and that comes from the snowpack during the winter months.

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