Oregon revenue forecast shows strong state revenue, predicts mild recession

MEDFORD, Ore. – The Oregon Legislative Revenue office presented its quarterly report for the state’s revenue forecast Wednesday.

It showed personal income tax, corporate income tax and personal income was all above September’s forecast.

“Even though we are in a really strong position right now, revenues have continued to outstrip expectations,” Medford Republican state representative Kim Wallan. “Meaning Oregonians are paying more in taxes than people thought they would.”

Despite the extra money the legislature will have to spend, both Medford Republican state representative Kim Wallan and Ashland Democratic representative Pam Marsh agree, the next budget will need to be conservative, with a mild recession widely predicted. 

“We’ll be anticipating a slight recession, time will tell if that actually happens,” Marsh said. “We’re not going to be able to make an enormous investments we’ve made over the last two years. We’re going to need to be much more rigorous in the budget process.”

With change looming, governor Kate Brown released a statement saying the news of the revenue forecast comes at the right time.

It’s also good news for many Oregonians.

Because the actual state revenue exceeded the forecasted revenue by more than 2%, the state’s kicker tax credit will kick in in your 2022 taxes.

Equating to billions of dollars going back to Oregonians

“What all this adds up to is Oregonians are going to receive kicker of about $3.6 billion when they file their taxes next year,” Marsh said.

With a cautious approach for a future budget in mind, representative Wallan said Democrats losing their supermajority in the legislature will be key.

Any tax bill introduced in the next two years, will need some sort of bipartisan support.

“We have more money than we’ve ever had. So it seems like their shouldn’t be an appetite for raising taxes,” Wallan said.

Both representatives made it clear that the anticipated slight recession is purely a prediction.

Wallan said in 2024 we will have a better understanding on whether we had a recession or if it was just a blip for 2023.

NBC5 News reporter Zachary Larsen grew up in Surprise, Arizona. He graduated from Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism. At ASU, Zack interned at Arizona Sports 98.7FM and Softball America. During his Junior year, Zack joined the ASU Sports Bureau. He covered the Fiesta Bowl, the Phoenix Open and major basketball tournaments. Zack enjoys working out, creative writing, music, and rooting for his ASU Sun Devils.
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