We’re down to the final four in the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, four teams tantalizingly close to gold. But a gold medal isn’t the only thing on the line at Accor Arena over the next few days; there’s also some individual hardware to hand out, specifically the honor of Olympics MVP.
This is, after all, quite possibly the most talented field in the history of Olympic men’s basketball, and the biggest names haven’t disappointed. But which star has shone the brightest? Who has the inside track for tournament MVP honors?
We’ve ranked the top 10 MVP candidates of the four remaining teams below, based on a mix of how well they’ve played so far and how likely it is that their team can win it all.
Olympic men’s basketball MVP ladder: Who’s on top?
10. Daniel Theis, Germany
Stats: 9.3 points, 7.3 rebounds (8th), 1.3 steals, 53.8% FG, 50% 3P
Why he could be higher: Admittedly, it’s a bit of a stretch; Theis is Germany’s unsung hero, providing rim protection and physicality and taking whatever offensive scraps happen to fall his way. But he’s a vital piece of the team that might be the biggest remaining threat to the U.S. — Dennis Schroder wouldn’t be able to do what he does without Theis stretching the floor — and if he comes up big in a win over Team USA, who knows.
Why he’s here: It’s hard to be much higher when you’re the third most important player on your team, even if your team looks like a gold medal contender.
9. Evan Fournier, France
Stats: 11.5 points, 2.5 assists, 36.1% FG, 40% 3P
Why he could be higher: Shooters shoot. Fournier has blown awfully hot and cold over France’s first four games — a sentence that will no doubt sound familiar to fans of any of the NBA teams he’s played on — but when he gets it going, he can fill up a box score in a hurry. He’s already authored one clutch moment for Les Bleus, carrying the offense down the stretch of the win over Canada. And really, France doesn’t have a ton of other options in its backcourt; if it wants to win gold, it’s going to need Fournier to take them there.
Why he’s here: He simply hasn’t been all that good for long stretches of time in this tournament, and France will be underdogs against Germany and the U.S. in a hypothetical gold medal game.
8. Anthony Davis, United States
Stats: 9.5 points, 7.3 rebounds (8th), 1.3 blocks (6th), 1.0 steals, 57.7% FG, 50% 3P
Why he could be higher: AD has, very quietly, been the third-best player on Team USA through its first four games, willing to do whatever coach Steve Kerr asks of him: Start at the 4, play alongside Bam Adebayo at the 5, guard 1-5. And he’s excelled at all of it, all while feasting on the rare occasions in which he gets an isolation opportunity. A big man as versatile as Davis unlocks so many different lineup possibilities for Kerr, and if there’s ever a game in which the U.S. needs it, he’ll be part of the closing lineup.
Why he’s here: Unfortunately, “unlocking lineup possibilities” is not the strongest MVP case; Davis does all the little things, but this offense is simply never going to run through him.
7. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia
Stats: 18.5 points (8th), 4.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists (12th), 48.1% FG, 48% 3P
Why he could be higher: Serbia’s offense does run through Bogdanovic at times, especially when NIkola Jokic hits the bench, and the Atlanta Hawks gunner has been heating up of late. It’s not too hard to imagine Bogdanovic catching fire to carry his country to an upset of the U.S., in which case he’d be neck-and-neck with Jokic for MVP honors.
Why he’s here: An upset of the U.S. feels pretty unlikely, and Jokic is still the heart and soul of this team.
SEE MORE: Men’s basketball bracket: Who does Team USA play in semifinals?
6. Victor Wembanyama, France
Stats: 14.5 points, 11.0 rebounds (2nd), 3.5 assists, 2.8 steals (3rd), 1.8 blocks (1st). 42.6% FG, 31.8% 3P
Why he could be higher: Ignore the shooting splits for a second, and just look at those numbers: Wemby has been a one-man wrecking crew on the defensive end, the biggest reason why France is in the semifinals right now. And sure, the offense hasn’t been particularly efficient, but he’s also gotten very little help without a point guard to put him in positions to succeed. If France win it all, Wembanyama is its most likely MVP.
Why he’s here: France winning it all still feels hard to imagine, even after the upset over Canada; this offense is just too hard to trust. But really, that’s it: Wemby’s been as-advertised in his first Olympics at 20 years old.
5. Franz Wagner, Germany
Stats: 20.8 points (4th), 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 50% FG, 20% 3P
Why he could be higher: Wagner has grown into Germany’s No. 1 scoring option, the guy who gets the ball when the shot clock is running down and the team needs someone to create something. And he’s responded brilliantly, slamming the door on Greece in the quarterfinals.
Why he’s here: There’s only so high you can put a guy who doesn’t play for the U.S., and while he’s the No. 1 scoring option, he’s still not the most important player on his own team. (More on that guy shortly.)
4. Kevin Durant, United States
Stats: 14.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 60% FG, 63% 3P
Why he could be higher: No, that’s not a typo; Durant is really shooting 60% from the field and 63% from deep. He’s the leading scorer in U.S. Olympic history, and he’s still among the most lethal scorers on the plant. Oh, and he’s seven feet tall.
Why he’s here: The only reason he’s not higher is that the U.S. has waxed its opponents so thoroughly that it hasn’t needed to play him more than 15-20 minutes.
SEE MORE: How to watch the U.S. men’s basketball team at the Paris Olympics: TV and stream schedule
3. Nikola Jokic, Serbia
Stats: 19.3 points (7th), 11.8 rebounds (1st), 7.5 assists (5th), 2.5 steals (2nd), 60% FG, 20% 3P
Why he could be higher: Jokic has the highest offensive efficiency rating of anyone at the Olympics, and he hasn’t even found his outside shot yet. He is, quite simply, a one-man elite offense, the game’s premier orchestrator trapped inside the body of its most voracious rebounder. No one’s had an answer for him yet, not even the U.S.; Serbia played Team USA even when he was on the floor in the group stage matchup.
Why he’s here: He plays the U.S. in the semifinals, that’s why, and he’s not surrounded by a team of All-Stars. If you told me Jokic would reach the gold medal game, he’d be No. 1 on this list.
2. Dennis Schroder, Germany
Stats: 18.0 points (10th), 8.8 assists (1st), 2.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals (9th), 50% FG, 42% 3P
Why he could be higher: Germany almost certainly isn’t here without its point guard, the man who makes its offense go. Germany doesn’t really have a ton of ballhandling; what it has are guys who fit perfectly around a ballhandler, and Schroder has filled that need to a T. It’s been almost impossible to keep him out of the lane in Paris, and when you do, he’s shooting 42% from 3. He gets the nod over Jokic because he’ll likely only see the U.S. in the gold medal game.
Why he’s here: It’s simply impossible to put a non-U.S. player in the top spot, but Schroder’s been the best of the rest.
1. LeBron James, United States
Stats: 13.8 points, 7.8 assists (2nd), 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 67.6% FG
Why he’s here: LeBron is second in assists per game and has only averaged 20 minutes a game. That’s how good he and this U.S. offense have been so far. For all the talent surrounding James, he’s still the leader of this game, the guy who gets everyone going and sets the tone. If the U.S. finishes this run off, expect LeBron to hoist the hardware.
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